The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: The European Union is preparing further counter measures against newly announced US tariffs of 20%, per CNBC.

BREAKING: UBS says a permanent implementation of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs would result in inflation rising to 5%. This would be a result of prices rising to "adjust to the higher costs of imports." We are on the verge of 5% inflation and negative GDP growth.

Something is seriously wrong here. The Fed went from a 50 basis point rate cut to saying they do not need to be "in a hurry" to cut rates all within 2 months. This has undermined confidence in Fed policy again. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

The Fed Since 2021: 1. Jan 2021: Inflation is "transitory" 2. Dec 2021: Inflation is not transitory 3. May 2022: Recession is needed to lower inflation 4. Feb 2023: We may be able to achieve a "soft landing" 5. Sept 2023: Inflation will hit 2% in 2025 6. July 2024: Rate

BREAKING: The number of US multifamily housing units under construction fell to 825,000 in September, the lowest since March 2022. Since the July 2023 peak, units under construction have decreased by 179,000, or 18%, the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis. In the past, such a https://t.co/F3SDbYOGr8

BREAKING: US existing home sales dropped 3.0% to 4.02 million in September, near the lowest level on record. Last month, closed sales of existing homes were only above the onset of the 2020 pandemic. Contract closings are now ~30% below pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, sales https://t.co/EGyBheJnel